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Initially, Donald Trump appeared to take a strong approach regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After making statements of "significant consequences" during the summer should Putin continued hindering truce talks, the former president eventually introduced substantial penalties on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision significantly impacted the Russian leader's capability to fund his military invasion in the region.

But, via his latest 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, that was drafted by American and Russian representatives lacking Ukrainian or EU input, the former president has apparently returned to his pro-Putin stance.

Rewarding Aggression

Trump's proposal would in practice benefit the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while leaving the country's democratic system in peril. Although bold statements that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be upheld", significant aspects of the plan in reality compromise that essential autonomy. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate past, the former president continues to consider the war as a basic land disagreement, implying handing Putin a portion of Ukraine's soil will satisfy the leader. Yet, Putin's invasion is not simply about dominating a charred area of deindustrialized area in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear desire to eliminate it so it ceases to acts as an enticing example for the Russian people of the responsible leadership that Putin's increasing autocracy prevents them.

Land Giveaways

Although keeping in status the already divided oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would compel Ukraine to surrender all of Donetsk region. Aside from rewarding the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unable to seize in over a lengthy period of warfare, this concession would render Ukrainian military defenses severely weakened.

Donetsk is the location of the nation's well-known "stronghold system", the well-established military defenses that constitute a key obstacle to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these positions, providing Putin a unobstructed route to the capital if he subsequently choose to renew the hostilities.

Military Limitations

Then, in a step that would make future hostilities simpler for Russia, the plan would require Ukraine to diminish the numbers of its armed forces from their current 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a cap of six hundred thousand. Importantly, the initiative sets no similar constraints on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Putin's efforts to portray Ukraine's chosen by the people administration as Nazis, Trump's plan declares: "Any radical ideology and actions must be condemned and prohibited." Apparently to highlight this aspect, it requires that "Ukraine will hold political contests in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. However, the proposal sets no condition that the Russian leader jeopardize his regime by allowing democratic processes in Russia.

Defense Assurances

Admittedly, the proposal has Russia pledge not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in legislation its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". But given that the Russian leadership has violated equivalent accords in the past – for example the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to recognize the nation's territorial integrity in return for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a truce and a return of seized areas in the region to Ukrainian control – for what reason should anyone trust Russia this time?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on western security guarantees. While the proposal warns of a "immediate unified defense action" in case Russia resume its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the specifics range from fuzzy to troubling. The initiative would not only block Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude Nato members from deploying forces on Ukraine's soil, effectively precluding the reassurance force, likely headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to stop Russia from replenishing his diminished troops, rearming, and reinvading.

International Response

Another supplementary accord apparently would grant Ukraine with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any subsequent "major, intentional, and ongoing aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." This implies a defense action. But in contrast to a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable protection against additional invasion – the credibility of the side agreement would hinge on the dedication of Nato leaders, like Trump, to act militarily to Russia's hostilities, a response they have {not